| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 77.0% | 79% | -1.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 16.4% | 83.6% |
| logistic | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| Federico Iannaccone | Luka Mikrut | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1498 | 1735 |
| Surface Elo | 1498 | 1735 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 22 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Maximo Zeitune | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Valerio Aboian | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Juan Estevez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Lukas Neumayer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Kimmer Coppejans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Federico Iannaccone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Federico Iannaccone | 0 - 2 | Luka Mikrut |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.27 | 78.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.55 | 28.2% | 22 Sep 06:15 |