| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.9% | 76% | -14.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 75.9% | 24.0% |
| logistic | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| Hugo Dellien | Juan Manuel La Serna | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1755 | 1663 |
| Surface Elo | 1755 | 1663 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Juan Bautista Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 1 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Juan Manuel La Serna | 0 - 2 | Hugo Dellien |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Hugo Dellien | 2 - 0 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| 02 Feb 2026 | Hugo Dellien | 2 - 0 | Juan Manuel La Serna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 20 Oct 06:15 |