| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.9% | 72% | -13.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.8% | 88% | -6.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 75.1% | 86% | -10.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 78% | -15.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 65.1% | 18.4% | 16.5% |
| xgboost | 63.0% | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| logistic | 65.1% | 20.2% | 14.7% |
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1841 | 1702 |
| Surface Elo | 1841 | 1702 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 1.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.57 | 1.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 07 Oct | H | CD Guadalajara B | 1 - 1 | D |
| 02 Oct | H | Atlético Madrid | 3 - 2 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Alcorcon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Atlético Madrid | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | UE Sant Andreu | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Levante | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Malaga | 3 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Betis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | La Coruna | 2 - 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | Alaves | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Villarreal | 0 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Real Madrid | 3 - 1 | Villarreal |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Villarreal | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 05 Oct 2024 | Real Madrid | 2 - 0 | Villarreal |
| 19 May 2024 | Villarreal | 4 - 4 | Real Madrid |
| 17 Dec 2023 | Real Madrid | 4 - 1 | Villarreal |
| 08 Apr 2023 | Real Madrid | 2 - 3 | Villarreal |
| 07 Jan 2023 | Villarreal | 2 - 1 | Real Madrid |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Villarreal | 0 - 0 | Real Madrid |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Real Madrid | 0 - 0 | Villarreal |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.50 | 13.3% | 10 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 6.00 | 16.7% | 10 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 10 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.30 | 76.9% | 10 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.01 | 14.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.16 | 16.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.28 | 78.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.90 | 25.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |