OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Portugal Liga Portugal · Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished
Benfica 2.40 2 - 0 1.00 Guimaraes
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 63.8%82%-18.1%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 89.2%97%-7.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 85.5%96%-10.1%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.5%67%-11.6%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 54.1%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson75.7%15.9%8.4%
xgboost62.9%23.5%13.6%
logistic77.7%15.3%6.9%
Inputs the models saw
BenficaGuimaraes
Elo (pre-match)18531482
Surface Elo18531482
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.00
Form trend0.600.40
Season points per game0.001.00
Season goals for / game1.001.00
Season goals against / game3.001.00
Rest days2021
Head-to-head (last 10)8 W0 W · 2 D
Benfica: last 5
20 SepAPorto1 - 3L
20 SepAPorto1 - 3L
13 SepHGil Vicente3 - 1W
09 SepAMoreirense4 - 0W
05 SepAMaritimo3 - 0W
Guimaraes: last 5
11 OctHPacos Ferreira0 - 1L
20 SepHMoreirense1 - 1D
20 SepHMoreirense1 - 1D
12 SepAAcademico Viseu1 - 2L
06 SepHCasa Pia0 - 0D
Head to head
21 Mar 2026Benfica3 - 0Guimaraes
01 Nov 2025Guimaraes0 - 3Benfica
19 Apr 2025Guimaraes0 - 3Benfica
07 Dec 2024Benfica1 - 0Guimaraes
11 Feb 2024Guimaraes2 - 2Benfica
02 Sep 2023Benfica4 - 0Guimaraes
18 Mar 2023Benfica5 - 1Guimaraes
01 Oct 2022Guimaraes0 - 0Benfica
27 Feb 2022Benfica3 - 0Guimaraes
25 Sep 2021Guimaraes1 - 3Benfica
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away12.108.3%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw6.6815.0%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.2282.0%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4967.1%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.6537.7%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:20 UTC