OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-22
⚽ England EFL Trophy · Tuesday 22 September 2026, 18:00 UTC · finished
Notts County 1.00 2 - 1 1.80 Grimsby
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.3%48%+7.6%✓ hit
DCHome or away 79.8%79%+0.4%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 66.9%64%+2.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 45.3%59%-13.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 46.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson47.4%25.5%27.1%
xgboost36.2%29.8%34.0%
logistic37.9%27.1%35.1%
Inputs the models saw
Notts CountyGrimsby
Elo (pre-match)14931539
Surface Elo14931539
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.001.80
Form trend0.70-0.60
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W3 W · 1 D
Notts County: last 5
19 SepAReading0 - 2L
19 SepAReading0 - 2L
12 SepHBradford0 - 1L
05 SepAHuddersfield1 - 1D
01 SepADoncaster1 - 1D
Grimsby: last 5
19 SepHCrawley Town2 - 0W
19 SepHCrawley Town2 - 0W
12 SepHBristol Rvs2 - 0W
05 SepACheltenham2 - 2D
01 SepAAccrington2 - 2D
Head to head
28 Feb 2026Notts County0 - 1Grimsby
13 Dec 2025Grimsby0 - 2Notts County
11 Mar 2025Grimsby0 - 2Notts County
22 Aug 2024Notts County4 - 1Grimsby
13 Jan 2024Grimsby5 - 5Notts County
12 Aug 2023Notts County3 - 2Grimsby
05 Feb 2022Notts County1 - 2Grimsby
30 Oct 2021Grimsby0 - 1Notts County
27 Apr 2019Notts County2 - 1Grimsby
22 Dec 2018Grimsby4 - 0Notts County
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.1032.3%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5028.6%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.1546.5%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7158.5%22 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1047.6%22 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:28 UTC