OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ League Two · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Accrington 1.20 3 - 1 2.00 Gillingham
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 47.3%43%+4.3%✓ hit
DCHome or away 74.2%77%-3.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 61.7%60%+2.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 55.4%54%+1.1%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 50.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson41.2%28.1%30.7%
xgboost42.1%27.9%30.0%
logistic42.5%29.7%27.9%
Inputs the models saw
AccringtonGillingham
Elo (pre-match)13721419
Surface Elo13721419
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.202.00
Form trend-0.400.20
Season points per game1.101.60
Season goals for / game1.301.50
Season goals against / game1.401.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 3 D
Accrington: last 5
10 OctAOldham0 - 0D
10 OctAOldham0 - 0D
06 OctHSalford1 - 1D
03 OctHCheltenham2 - 0W
03 OctHCheltenham2 - 0W
Gillingham: last 5
13 OctHBrighton & Hove Albion U214 - 3W
10 OctARotherham4 - 1W
10 OctARotherham4 - 1W
03 OctHNewport County0 - 0D
03 OctHNewport County0 - 0D
Head to head
06 Apr 2026Gillingham2 - 0Accrington
02 Aug 2025Accrington1 - 1Gillingham
15 Mar 2025Accrington1 - 1Gillingham
12 Oct 2024Gillingham1 - 2Accrington
13 Jan 2024Accrington1 - 2Gillingham
12 Aug 2023Gillingham1 - 0Accrington
26 Mar 2022Accrington1 - 2Gillingham
30 Oct 2021Gillingham0 - 0Accrington
16 Jan 2021Accrington0 - 1Gillingham
15 Dec 2020Gillingham0 - 2Accrington
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.2530.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.2031.2%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.1546.5%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.1047.6%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.7058.8%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.8535.1%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.4029.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4041.7%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9551.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8354.6%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:57 UTC