| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.9% | 56% | -2.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.0% | 42.9% |
| logistic | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Alexander Shevchenko | Daniil Glinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1692 | 1711 |
| Surface Elo | 1692 | 1711 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Jay Friend | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Miomir Kecmanovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Yoshihito Nishioka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Laslo Djere | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Jack Pinnington Jones | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Moez Echargui | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Gauthier Onclin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Feb 2026 | Alexander Shevchenko | 2 - 1 | Daniil Glinka |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.78 | 56.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |