| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.9% | 66% | -8.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 82.7% | 92% | -9.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 76.3% | 87% | -10.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 53% | +1.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 21.4% | 22.1% | 56.5% |
| xgboost | 17.2% | 22.7% | 60.1% |
| logistic | 15.5% | 23.4% | 61.1% |
| Nacional | Sp Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1395 | 1639 |
| Surface Elo | 1395 | 1639 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 1.38 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.25 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 14 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 7 W · 0 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Rio Ave | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Famalicao | 0 - 4 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Alverca | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Sp Lisbon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Estrela | 2 - 3 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | Chaves | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Gent | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Gil Vicente | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Copenhagen | 0 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | FC Tirsense | 3 - 2 | W |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Nacional | 1 - 2 | Sp Braga |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Sp Braga | 0 - 1 | Nacional |
| 21 Feb 2025 | Sp Braga | 1 - 0 | Nacional |
| 20 Sep 2024 | Nacional | 0 - 3 | Sp Braga |
| 28 Feb 2021 | Nacional | 1 - 2 | Sp Braga |
| 17 Oct 2020 | Sp Braga | 2 - 1 | Nacional |
| 18 Jan 2019 | Nacional | 0 - 3 | Sp Braga |
| 12 Aug 2018 | Sp Braga | 4 - 2 | Nacional |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.49 | 67.1% | 25 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 25 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 5.75 | 17.4% | 25 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 25 Oct 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.08 | 48.1% | 25 Oct 18:00 |