| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.6% | 47% | +0.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.1% | 81% | -6.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.0% | 63% | -4.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 60% | -6.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.2% | 23.0% | 29.8% |
| xgboost | 33.2% | 30.1% | 36.7% |
| logistic | 31.0% | 28.3% | 40.7% |
| Oxford City | Morecambe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1294 | 1313 |
| Surface Elo | 1294 | 1313 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 889 | 154 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Apr | A | Altrincham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Apr | H | Bromley | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Apr | H | Oldham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 01 Apr | A | Barnet | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Mar | H | Wealdstone | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Apr | A | Forest Green | 0 - 5 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | Boreham Wood | 0 - 3 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | Woking | 1 - 5 | L |
| 06 Apr | H | Carlisle | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Apr | A | Rochdale | 4 - 2 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |