| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.4% | 49% | +3.0% | |
| DC | Draw or away | 78.6% | 78% | +0.7% | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.6% | 68% | +2.0% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 52% | +4.4% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.9% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.0% | 25.0% | 48.1% |
| xgboost | 23.3% | 27.5% | 49.2% |
| logistic | 17.9% | 24.7% | 57.4% |
| Newport County | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1383 | 1517 |
| Surface Elo | 1383 | 1517 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.43 | 1.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.86 | 2.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Cheltenham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Cheltenham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Rotherham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Rotherham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Crewe | 5 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Crewe | 5 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | H | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Newport County | 2 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Chesterfield | 4 - 1 | Newport County |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Chesterfield | 2 - 1 | Newport County |
| 18 Oct 2024 | Newport County | 0 - 3 | Chesterfield |
| 01 May 2018 | Chesterfield | 1 - 0 | Newport County |
| 26 Aug 2017 | Newport County | 4 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.60 | 27.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 30 Oct 06:15 |