| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 69.2% | 79% | -9.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| logistic | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Petros Tsitsipas | Amit Vales | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1341 | 1554 |
| Surface Elo | 1341 | 1554 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 7 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Louis Wessels | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Jiri Cizek | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Radu Albot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Antoine Escoffier | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Murgett, F | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Jakub Filip | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Belozertsev, Nikita | 1 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Odysseas Geladaris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Jiri Cizek | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.27 | 78.7% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.40 | 29.4% | 21 Oct 06:15 |