| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.9% | 50% | -7.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.7% | 77% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 54.3% | 70% | -15.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 60% | +1.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 56.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.7% | 33.5% | 27.8% |
| xgboost | 37.4% | 25.5% | 37.1% |
| logistic | 35.8% | 28.2% | 36.0% |
| Northampton | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1301 | 1431 |
| Surface Elo | 1301 | 1431 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Exeter City | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Exeter | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Newport County | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Colchester | 0 - 1 | Northampton |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Northampton | 3 - 2 | Colchester |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Northampton | 3 - 0 | Colchester |
| 14 Aug 2021 | Colchester | 0 - 1 | Northampton |
| 24 Aug 2019 | Colchester | 1 - 0 | Northampton |
| 02 Feb 2019 | Northampton | 0 - 4 | Colchester |
| 25 Aug 2018 | Colchester | 1 - 2 | Northampton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.70 | 27.0% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.96 | 51.0% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.69 | 59.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |