| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.7% | 86% | -19.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.6% | 16.3% |
| logistic | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| Matthew William Donald | Gabriele Pennaforti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1613 | 1378 |
| Surface Elo | 1613 | 1378 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Giorgio Tabacco | 1 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Alexander Weis | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Jonas Forejtek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Marco Furlanetto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Rares Teodor Pieleanu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Laurent Lokoli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | H | Ruben Hartig | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Matteo Vavassori | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Martin Van Der Meerschen | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.16 | 86.2% | 18 Oct 06:15 |