| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.9% | 75% | -3.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 79.4% | 20.5% |
| logistic | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Kai Wehnelt | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1535 | 1415 |
| Surface Elo | 1535 | 1415 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 5 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Radu Mihai Papoe | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Kai Wehnelt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Alex Marti Pujolras | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Lorenzo Angelini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Pierluigi Basile | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Kilian Feldbausch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | Kai Wehnelt |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.34 | 74.6% | 13 Oct 06:15 |