| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 45.1% | 35% | +9.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.6% | 75% | +0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 56.1% | 51% | +5.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 59% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.6% | 27.8% | 35.6% |
| xgboost | 38.3% | 23.3% | 38.4% |
| logistic | 32.0% | 28.8% | 39.2% |
| Cadiz | Sp Gijon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1355 | 1487 |
| Surface Elo | 1355 | 1487 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.88 | 1.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 4 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Leganes | 4 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Leganes | 4 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Tenerife | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Tenerife | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Girona | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Celta B | 3 - 2 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Oviedo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Andorra | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Eldense | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Girona | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Sp Gijon | 3 - 0 | Cadiz |
| 09 Jan 2026 | Cadiz | 3 - 2 | Sp Gijon |
| 25 Apr 2025 | Cadiz | 1 - 0 | Sp Gijon |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Sp Gijon | 2 - 0 | Cadiz |
| 21 Feb 2020 | Sp Gijon | 1 - 0 | Cadiz |
| 01 Nov 2019 | Cadiz | 3 - 1 | Sp Gijon |
| 08 Jun 2019 | Sp Gijon | 1 - 0 | Cadiz |
| 21 Oct 2018 | Cadiz | 0 - 0 | Sp Gijon |
| 22 Apr 2018 | Cadiz | 0 - 0 | Sp Gijon |
| 19 Nov 2017 | Sp Gijon | 0 - 3 | Cadiz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 11 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 11 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 11 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 11 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.65 | 60.6% | 11 Oct 20:00 |