| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.0% | 59% | -10.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.4% | 84% | -8.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.6% | 78% | -13.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 54% | +2.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.8% | 28.9% | 30.3% |
| xgboost | 45.0% | 27.1% | 27.9% |
| logistic | 48.9% | 28.5% | 22.6% |
| Millwall | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1617 | 1643 |
| Surface Elo | 1617 | 1643 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 3.67 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Swansea | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Swansea | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Preston North End | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Preston | 1 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | West Ham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 14 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Swansea | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.06 | 19.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.06 | 24.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |