OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-28
⚽ Italy Serie A · Wednesday 28 October 2026, 17:30 UTC · finished
Ac Milan 2.20 2 - 4 1.40 Bologna
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 56.0%61%-4.7%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 82.0%85%-3.0%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 74.8%80%-4.8%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.1%55%+1.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 55.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson52.2%25.6%22.2%
xgboost58.2%24.2%17.5%
logistic59.7%23.7%16.6%
Inputs the models saw
Ac MilanBologna
Elo (pre-match)17861674
Surface Elo17861674
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.201.40
Form trend-0.40-0.50
Season points per game2.332.00
Season goals for / game2.001.67
Season goals against / game1.001.33
Rest days24
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W1 W · 3 D
Ac Milan: last 5
28 OctHCatanzaro2 - 1W
28 OctAPavonese1 - 1D
25 OctAUdinese2 - 0W
25 OctAUdinese2 - 0W
25 OctHClub Milano SSD1 - 1D
Bologna: last 5
24 OctACagliari2 - 0W
24 OctACagliari2 - 0W
17 OctHInter1 - 3L
17 OctHInter1 - 3L
11 OctALecce2 - 1W
Head to head
03 Feb 2026Bologna0 - 3Ac Milan
14 Sep 2025Ac Milan1 - 0Bologna
09 May 2025Ac Milan3 - 1Bologna
27 Feb 2025Bologna2 - 1Ac Milan
27 Jan 2024Ac Milan2 - 2Bologna
21 Aug 2023Bologna0 - 2Ac Milan
15 Apr 2023Bologna1 - 1Ac Milan
27 Aug 2022Ac Milan2 - 0Bologna
04 Apr 2022Ac Milan0 - 0Bologna
23 Oct 2021Bologna2 - 4Ac Milan
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away5.7517.4%27 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.1923.9%27 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6560.6%27 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8254.9%27 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.0548.8%27 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC