OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-20
🇮🇹 Serie A · Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Parma 0.80 2 - 1 0.20 Genoa
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 59.6%32%+27.7%✓ hit
DCHome or away 83.5%71%+12.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 68.2%46%+21.9%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 57.1%64%-7.1%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 48.4%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson33.2%31.1%35.6%
xgboost41.4%25.1%33.4%
logistic41.5%29.5%29.0%
Inputs the models saw
ParmaGenoa
Elo (pre-match)15951577
Surface Elo15951577
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.800.20
Form trend0.50-0.20
Season points per game0.250.25
Season goals for / game0.500.50
Season goals against / game1.502.00
Rest days57
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W3 W · 3 D
Parma: last 5
14 SepAComo1 - 2L
06 SepHMonza1 - 1D
29 AugAJuventus0 - 2L
22 AugHCagliari0 - 1L
24 MayHSassuolo1 - 0W
Genoa: last 5
12 SepHFrosinone1 - 1D
04 SepHComo1 - 4L
30 AugALazio0 - 1L
22 AugHNapoli0 - 2L
24 MayALecce0 - 1L
Head to head
18 Jan 2026Parma0 - 0Genoa
19 Oct 2025Genoa0 - 0Parma
12 Jan 2025Genoa1 - 0Parma
04 Nov 2024Parma0 - 1Genoa
05 Feb 2023Parma2 - 0Genoa
03 Sep 2022Genoa3 - 3Parma
19 Mar 2021Parma1 - 2Genoa
30 Nov 2020Genoa1 - 2Parma
23 Jun 2020Genoa1 - 4Parma
20 Oct 2019Parma5 - 1Genoa
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.4041.7%20 Sep 14:00
Bet3651X2draw2.9034.5%20 Sep 14:00
Bet3651X2home3.3030.3%20 Sep 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.6338.0%20 Sep 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.5066.7%20 Sep 14:00
SportyBet1X2away2.6637.6%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.1232.0%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.0932.4%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.4540.8%20 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.5863.3%20 Sep 06:16
Generated 2026-10-30 20:33 UTC