| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.0% | 42% | +5.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.2% | 72% | +3.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.2% | 59% | +5.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 59% | -1.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.5% | 28.9% | 29.6% |
| xgboost | 47.4% | 28.8% | 23.8% |
| logistic | 48.4% | 27.3% | 24.4% |
| Portsmouth | Stoke | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1577 | 1543 |
| Surface Elo | 1577 | 1543 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 2.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Swansea | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Swansea | 3 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Burnley | 0 - 0 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Burnley | 0 - 0 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Millwall | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Blackburn | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Blackburn | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | A | Gateshead | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Leeds | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Preston | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Stoke | 1 - 3 | Portsmouth |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Portsmouth | 0 - 1 | Stoke |
| 22 Jan 2025 | Portsmouth | 3 - 1 | Stoke |
| 02 Oct 2024 | Stoke | 6 - 1 | Portsmouth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.17 | 31.6% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.37 | 29.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.25 | 44.4% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.69 | 59.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |