| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.0% | 62% | -5.5% | |
| DC | Draw or away | 82.0% | 85% | -2.7% | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 75.3% | 79% | -4.0% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 67% | -6.8% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.1% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 25.9% | 24.4% | 49.7% |
| xgboost | 17.3% | 21.8% | 60.9% |
| logistic | 13.0% | 23.6% | 63.4% |
| Excelsior | Twente | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1481 | 1685 |
| Surface Elo | 1481 | 1685 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.25 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 3 W · 3 D |
| 28 Oct | H | Heerenveen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | A | MVV Maastricht | 3 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Den Haag | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Oct | A | Fortuna Sittard | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | For Sittard | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Lincoln Red Imps | 4 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Utrecht | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Utrecht | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Twente | 0 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Excelsior | 1 - 0 | Twente |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Excelsior | 0 - 3 | Twente |
| 08 Dec 2023 | Twente | 4 - 2 | Excelsior |
| 01 Apr 2023 | Excelsior | 0 - 0 | Twente |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Twente | 4 - 0 | Excelsior |
| 23 Dec 2017 | Excelsior | 0 - 0 | Twente |
| 27 Oct 2017 | Twente | 1 - 3 | Excelsior |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.95 | 20.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.49 | 67.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |