| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.9% | 53% | +1.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| logistic | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| Mattia Bellucci | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1817 | 1714 |
| Surface Elo | 1817 | 1714 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 11 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Shintaro Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Luka Pavlovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Elias Ymer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Martin Landaluce | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Mattia Bellucci | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Dalibor Svrcina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Dalibor Svrcina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Mattia Bellucci | 2 - 1 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
| 09 May 2026 | Mattia Bellucci | 2 - 1 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 21 Oct 06:15 |