| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 74.0% | 93% | -18.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 23.1% | 76.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 13.1% | 86.8% |
| logistic | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| David Goffin | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1605 | 1891 |
| Surface Elo | 1605 | 1891 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | H | David Goffin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | David Goffin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.08 | 92.6% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 8.70 | 11.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |