OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-24

🎾 ATP Almaty, Kazakhstan Men Singles · Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished

Daniil Medvedev 1.80 1 - 0 1.80 Alexander Bublik

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	62.7%	67%	-4.4%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	50.0%	50.0%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	75.2%	24.8%
logistic	66.9%	33.1%

Inputs the models saw

	Daniil Medvedev	Alexander Bublik
Elo (pre-match)	2089	1950
Surface Elo	2089	1950
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	-0.30	0.30
Season points per game	2.60	1.80
Season goals for / game	1.73	1.40
Season goals against / game	0.47	1.20
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	5 W	1 W · 0 D

Daniil Medvedev: last 5

24 Oct	A	Alexander Bublik	1 - 0	W
23 Oct	H	Terence Atmane	2 - 0	W
23 Oct	H	Terence Atmane	2 - 0	W
22 Oct	H	Sho Shimabukuro	2 - 0	W
22 Oct	H	Sho Shimabukuro	2 - 0	W

Alexander Bublik: last 5

24 Oct	H	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 1	L
23 Oct	H	Karen Khachanov	2 - 1	W
23 Oct	H	Karen Khachanov	2 - 1	W
22 Oct	H	Fabian Marozsan	1 - 0	W
13 Oct	A	Alexander Zverev	1 - 2	L

Head to head

24 Oct 2026	Alexander Bublik	0 - 1	Daniil Medvedev
16 Jun 2025	Alexander Bublik	2 - 0	Daniil Medvedev
22 Apr 2024	Alexander Bublik	0 - 2	Daniil Medvedev
27 Feb 2023	Alexander Bublik	0 - 2	Daniil Medvedev
09 Aug 2021	Alexander Bublik	1 - 2	Daniil Medvedev
24 Jul 2021	Alexander Bublik	0 - 2	Daniil Medvedev
31 May 2021	Alexander Bublik	0 - 3	Daniil Medvedev

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.70	37.0%	24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.49	67.1%	24 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 19:20 UTC