| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.2% | 59% | -8.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.5% | 86% | -7.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.5% | 80% | -11.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 54% | +1.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.3% | 24.3% | 25.4% |
| xgboost | 51.9% | 27.8% | 20.2% |
| logistic | 48.9% | 27.7% | 23.5% |
| Almeria | Oviedo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1602 | 1528 |
| Surface Elo | 1602 | 1528 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.70 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.30 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 3 W · 3 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Sociedad B | 4 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Sociedad | 4 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Leganes | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Leganes | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Atletico Malagueno | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Ceuta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Eibar | 3 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Eldense | 1 - 4 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Eldense | 1 - 4 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Sp Gijon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Almeria | 1 - 1 | Oviedo |
| 13 Oct 2024 | Oviedo | 3 - 2 | Almeria |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Oviedo | 2 - 0 | Almeria |
| 20 Aug 2021 | Almeria | 2 - 1 | Oviedo |
| 01 May 2021 | Almeria | 2 - 2 | Oviedo |
| 30 Nov 2020 | Oviedo | 1 - 2 | Almeria |
| 16 Jan 2020 | Almeria | 2 - 0 | Oviedo |
| 01 Nov 2019 | Oviedo | 0 - 0 | Almeria |
| 27 Apr 2019 | Almeria | 0 - 1 | Oviedo |
| 08 Dec 2018 | Oviedo | 1 - 2 | Almeria |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.33 | 23.1% | 24 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 24 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 24 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 24 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 24 Oct 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.90 | 20.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.84 | 54.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.93 | 51.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |