| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 42.1% | 34% | +8.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.1% | 76% | -1.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 52.6% | 47% | +5.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 56% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.3% | 28.2% | 31.4% |
| xgboost | 33.1% | 29.6% | 37.3% |
| logistic | 32.1% | 28.2% | 39.7% |
| Stoke | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1517 | 1511 |
| Surface Elo | 1517 | 1511 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.73 | 1.27 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.64 | 1.09 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 5 W · 1 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Derby | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Derby | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 2 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Middlesbrough | 2 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Halifax | 2 - 4 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Blackburn | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Blackburn | 0 - 1 | L |
| 02 May 2026 | Bristol City | 2 - 0 | Stoke |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Stoke | 5 - 1 | Bristol City |
| 12 Feb 2025 | Bristol City | 2 - 0 | Stoke |
| 22 Oct 2024 | Stoke | 2 - 2 | Bristol City |
| 04 May 2024 | Stoke | 4 - 0 | Bristol City |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Bristol City | 2 - 3 | Stoke |
| 07 Apr 2023 | Stoke | 1 - 2 | Bristol City |
| 17 Dec 2022 | Bristol City | 1 - 2 | Stoke |
| 15 Apr 2022 | Stoke | 0 - 1 | Bristol City |
| 24 Nov 2021 | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | Stoke |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.73 | 57.8% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.93 | 34.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.38 | 29.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.79 | 55.9% | 24 Oct 06:15 |