OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-21

🎾 ATP Almaty, Kazakhstan Men Singles · Wednesday 21 October 2026, 14:30 UTC · finished

Stefanos Tsitsipas 1.80 2 - 0 1.20 Mikhail Kukushkin

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	78.3%	95%	-16.9%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	77.7%	22.3%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	94.2%	5.8%
logistic	80.0%	20.0%

Inputs the models saw

	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Mikhail Kukushkin
Elo (pre-match)	1961	1630
Surface Elo	1961	1630
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.20
Form trend	0.30	-0.60
Season points per game	2.50	3.00
Season goals for / game	1.67	2.00
Season goals against / game	0.83	0.00
Rest days	1	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	4 W	0 W · 0 D

Stefanos Tsitsipas: last 5

21 Oct	A	Mikhail Kukushkin	2 - 0	W
20 Oct	H	Aleksandar Kovacevic	2 - 1	W
20 Oct	A	Aleksandar Kovacevic	2 - 1	W
14 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	L
14 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	L

Mikhail Kukushkin: last 5

21 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	0 - 2	L
19 Oct	H	Stefanos Sakellaridis	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Stefanos Sakellaridis	2 - 0	W
04 May	A	Mark Lajal	1 - 2	L
04 May	H	Tianhui Zhang	2 - 0	W

Head to head

21 Oct 2026	Mikhail Kukushkin	0 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
03 Oct 2022	Mikhail Kukushkin	0 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
15 Apr 2019	Mikhail Kukushkin	0 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
18 Feb 2019	Mikhail Kukushkin	0 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
26 Feb 2018	Mikhail Kukushkin	1 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	11.50	8.7%	21 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.05	95.2%	21 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:02 UTC