OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ Italy Serie A · Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Genoa 0.20 2 - 1 0.80 Fiorentina
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 48.9%42%+6.8%✗ miss
DCHome or away 74.0%73%+1.3%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 62.9%59%+3.4%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 54.6%49%+5.8%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 55.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson35.1%28.5%36.4%
xgboost27.1%30.6%42.3%
logistic27.9%29.0%43.1%
Inputs the models saw
GenoaFiorentina
Elo (pre-match)15651645
Surface Elo15651645
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.200.80
Form trend-0.10-0.50
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2020
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W5 W · 5 D
Genoa: last 5
02 OctARapid Bucuresti 19230 - 2L
20 SepAParma1 - 2L
12 SepHFrosinone1 - 1D
04 SepHComo1 - 4L
30 AugALazio0 - 1L
Fiorentina: last 5
20 SepHNapoli1 - 1D
11 SepAVenezia4 - 2W
05 SepHTorino1 - 2L
29 AugHFrosinone0 - 3L
24 AugARoma0 - 4L
Head to head
10 May 2026Fiorentina0 - 0Genoa
09 Nov 2025Genoa2 - 2Fiorentina
02 Feb 2025Fiorentina2 - 1Genoa
31 Oct 2024Genoa0 - 1Fiorentina
15 Apr 2024Fiorentina1 - 1Genoa
19 Aug 2023Genoa1 - 4Fiorentina
17 Jan 2022Fiorentina6 - 0Genoa
18 Sep 2021Genoa1 - 2Fiorentina
03 Apr 2021Genoa1 - 1Fiorentina
07 Dec 2020Fiorentina1 - 1Genoa
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.3842.0%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3829.6%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.2930.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.0548.8%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8155.2%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC