| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 67.7% | 79% | -11.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 24.6% | 75.3% |
| logistic | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| Alejandro Tabilo | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1792 | 2071 |
| Surface Elo | 1792 | 2071 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.75 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.14 |
| Rest days | 17 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Denis Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Casper Ruud | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Aug 2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | 0 - 2 | Rafael Jodar |
| 02 Aug 2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1 - 2 | Rafael Jodar |
| 06 Mar 2026 | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 0 | Rafael Jodar |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.31 | 76.3% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.65 | 27.4% | 26 Oct 06:15 |