OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Championship · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Derby 0.40 0 - 1 2.00 Stoke
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 48.2%34%+14.0%✗ miss
DCHome or away 75.0%76%-1.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 62.7%47%+15.5%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.8%52%+5.9%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 56.3%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson44.0%28.2%27.8%
xgboost42.0%25.4%32.6%
logistic44.6%29.0%26.4%
Inputs the models saw
DerbyStoke
Elo (pre-match)14911499
Surface Elo14911499
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.402.00
Form trend-0.100.20
Season points per game0.601.60
Season goals for / game0.901.70
Season goals against / game1.901.60
Rest days23
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W3 W · 3 D
Derby: last 5
14 OctAQPR1 - 4L
14 OctAQPR1 - 4L
13 OctAScunthorpe2 - 2D
10 OctHWrexham1 - 1D
10 OctHWrexham1 - 1D
Stoke: last 5
13 OctHMiddlesbrough2 - 3L
13 OctHMiddlesbrough2 - 3L
13 OctAHalifax2 - 4L
10 OctABolton2 - 1W
10 OctABolton2 - 1W
Head to head
06 Apr 2026Derby2 - 0Stoke
09 Aug 2025Stoke3 - 1Derby
03 May 2025Derby0 - 0Stoke
02 Nov 2024Stoke2 - 1Derby
30 Dec 2021Stoke1 - 2Derby
18 Sep 2021Derby2 - 1Stoke
20 Mar 2021Stoke1 - 0Derby
12 Dec 2020Derby0 - 0Stoke
31 Jan 2020Derby4 - 0Stoke
17 Aug 2019Stoke2 - 2Derby
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.3542.5%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.3030.3%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.8535.1%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.0548.8%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.8055.6%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.4441.0%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.4928.6%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.9933.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9551.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8952.9%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC