| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.6% | 78% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 81.6% | 18.4% |
| logistic | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Gustavo Heide | Felipe Meligeni Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1760 | 1573 |
| Surface Elo | 1760 | 1573 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | Gustavo Heide |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 30 Sep 06:15 |