| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.2% | 67% | -10.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.6% | 29.9% |
| xgboost | 48.4% | 50.5% |
| logistic | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Winnipeg Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1579 | 1420 |
| Surface Elo | 1579 | 1420 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.64 | 0.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.45 | 2.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.09 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 4 - 5 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Colorado Avalanche | 3 - 6 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Vegas Golden Knights | 6 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Vancouver Canucks | 4 - 2 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Seattle Kraken | 4 - 3 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Florida Panthers | 1 - 5 | L |
| 25 Oct | H | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Dallas Stars | 2 - 3 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | St. Louis Blues | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Mar 2026 | Winnipeg Jets | 4 - 1 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 - 1 | Winnipeg Jets |
| 15 Nov 2024 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 - 1 | Winnipeg Jets |
| 03 Nov 2024 | Winnipeg Jets | 7 - 4 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 29 Oct 20:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.81 | 35.6% | 29 Oct 20:20 |