| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.7% | 84% | -16.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 78.1% | 21.8% |
| logistic | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1701 | 1595 |
| Surface Elo | 1701 | 1595 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.18 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.64 | 1.63 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Nicolas Jarry | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Facundo Mena | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 May 2026 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 2 - 0 | Valerio Aboian |
| 11 Mar 2024 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.35 | 23.0% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.19 | 84.0% | 25 Oct 06:15 |