| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.9% | 77% | -8.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| logistic | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| Sumit Nagal | Luka Mikrut | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1617 | 1845 |
| Surface Elo | 1617 | 1845 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.56 |
| Rest days | 50 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Jan Kumstat | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Aug | A | Max Houkes | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Jul | A | Jan Kumstat | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Oleksii Krutykh | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Sumit Nagal | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 0 | Sumit Nagal |
| 29 Sep 2025 | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 1 | Sumit Nagal |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.28 | 78.1% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.45 | 29.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |