OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-11

NFL · Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Miami Dolphins – 24 - 31 – Cincinnati Bengals

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	57.2%	77%	-19.7%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	42.7%	57.3%

Inputs the models saw

	Miami Dolphins	Cincinnati Bengals
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.10
form diff	-0.38
rest diff	-0.02
home field	1.00
point diff	-1.34
opponent strength diff	0.06
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-10T17:00:00+00:00

Miami Dolphins: last 5

04 Oct	A	Minnesota Vikings	10 - 15	L
27 Sep	H	Kansas City Chiefs	10 - 24	L
20 Sep	A	San Francisco 49ers	13 - 35	L
13 Sep	A	Las Vegas Raiders	13 - 27	L
04 Jan	A	New England Patriots	10 - 38	L

Cincinnati Bengals: last 5

04 Oct	H	Jacksonville Jaguars	17 - 22	L
27 Sep	A	Pittsburgh Steelers	27 - 30	L
20 Sep	A	Houston Texans	20 - 6	W
13 Sep	H	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	33 - 27	W
04 Jan	H	Cleveland Browns	18 - 20	L

Head to head

21 Dec 2025	Miami Dolphins	21 - 45	Cincinnati Bengals
30 Sep 2022	Cincinnati Bengals	27 - 15	Miami Dolphins
06 Dec 2020	Miami Dolphins	19 - 7	Cincinnati Bengals
22 Dec 2019	Miami Dolphins	38 - 35	Cincinnati Bengals
07 Oct 2018	Cincinnati Bengals	27 - 17	Miami Dolphins
30 Sep 2016	Cincinnati Bengals	22 - 7	Miami Dolphins
01 Nov 2013	Miami Dolphins	22 - 20	Cincinnati Bengals
07 Oct 2012	Cincinnati Bengals	13 - 17	Miami Dolphins
31 Oct 2010	Cincinnati Bengals	14 - 22	Miami Dolphins
30 Dec 2007	Miami Dolphins	25 - 38	Cincinnati Bengals

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	4.01	24.9%	11 Oct 12:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.27	78.7%	11 Oct 12:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:08 UTC