| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.1% | 49% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.8% | 78% | -0.4% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.4% | 68% | -1.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 57% | -2.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.4% | 29.3% | 30.3% |
| xgboost | 48.7% | 30.6% | 20.7% |
| logistic | 51.7% | 27.6% | 20.7% |
| Stevenage | Milton Keynes Dons | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1552 | 1501 |
| Surface Elo | 1552 | 1501 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 2.67 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Plymouth | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Plymouth | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Bradford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Bradford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Wigan | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Blackpool | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Blackpool | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Luton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Luton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Reading | 1 - 5 | L |
| 16 Mar 2019 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 1 | Stevenage |
| 24 Nov 2018 | Stevenage | 3 - 2 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.75 | 57.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |