| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.3% | 61% | -8.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 37.2% | 62.7% |
| logistic | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Gabriel Debru | Alex Rybakov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1633 | 1489 |
| Surface Elo | 1633 | 1489 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Braden Shick | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jenson Brooksby | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Erik Arutiunian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Alex Rybakov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Braden Shick | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Young, Gavin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Bor Artnak | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Gabriel Debru | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Gavin Young | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Karl Poling | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Alex Rybakov | 1 - 2 | Gabriel Debru |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.58 | 63.3% | 22 Oct 06:15 |