| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.3% | 74% | -9.7% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 80.8% | 19.2% |
| logistic | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Sonay Kartal | Kimberly Birrell | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1724 | 1617 |
| Surface Elo | 1724 | 1617 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.57 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.29 | 0.71 |
| Rest days | 1 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W 路 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Maja Chwalinska | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Jasmine Paolini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Belinda Bencic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Anhelina Kalinina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Katie Volynets | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Katie Volynets | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Marie Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Aoi Ito | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Marie Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 May 2025 | Kimberly Birrell | 1 - 2 | Sonay Kartal |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.30 | 30.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |