OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-03
⚽ Scottish League Two · Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Dumbarton 1.20 2 - 1 0.80 Forfar
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 44.1%33%+10.9%✗ miss
DCHome or away 72.0%81%-9.2%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 58.4%45%+13.5%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 49.3%59%-10.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 53.8%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson38.2%29.0%32.7%
xgboost32.3%29.8%37.9%
logistic31.7%28.8%39.5%
Inputs the models saw
DumbartonForfar
Elo (pre-match)13221402
Surface Elo13221402
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.200.80
Form trend-0.60-0.50
Season points per game1.131.38
Season goals for / game1.001.00
Season goals against / game1.751.63
Rest days1414
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W4 W · 2 D
Dumbarton: last 5
26 SepHBanks O´Dee FC3 - 2W
22 SepHKilmarnock3 - 2W
19 SepHSpartans3 - 0W
19 SepHSpartans3 - 0W
12 SepAStranraer1 - 3L
Forfar: last 5
29 SepHFormartine United2 - 0W
26 SepHDundee United2 - 1W
22 SepHPeterhead0 - 2L
19 SepHAnnan Athletic1 - 0W
19 SepHAnnan Athletic1 - 0W
Head to head
28 Mar 2026Dumbarton2 - 2Forfar
07 Feb 2026Forfar2 - 0Dumbarton
22 Nov 2025Dumbarton1 - 4Forfar
13 Sep 2025Forfar2 - 3Dumbarton
06 Apr 2024Forfar0 - 2Dumbarton
10 Feb 2024Dumbarton2 - 2Forfar
16 Dec 2023Forfar2 - 4Dumbarton
19 Aug 2023Dumbarton3 - 1Forfar
29 Mar 2023Dumbarton0 - 1Forfar
14 Jan 2023Forfar2 - 1Dumbarton
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.9034.5%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.6027.8%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.0548.8%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6261.7%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.2544.4%03 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away3.3330.0%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6027.8%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.9850.5%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6759.9%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1047.6%03 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:21 UTC