| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.5% | 64% | -10.2% | abandoned |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.6% | 87% | -7.0% | abandoned |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.4% | 81% | -10.1% | abandoned |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 65% | -7.3% | abandoned |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.9% | no line | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 56.5% | 21.8% | 21.7% |
| xgboost | 49.0% | 29.2% | 21.8% |
| logistic | 55.0% | 24.0% | 21.0% |
| Carlisle | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1531 | 1416 |
| Surface Elo | 1531 | 1416 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.50 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Kidderminster | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Kidderminster | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Aldershot | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Aldershot | 3 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Fylde | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Barrow | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Barrow | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Leeds | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Tamworth | 2 - 1 | Carlisle |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Carlisle | 2 - 1 | Tamworth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.40 | 18.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |