| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.7% | 38% | +12.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.8% | 77% | -0.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.9% | 54% | +9.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 55% | -8.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.7% | 27.3% | 35.0% |
| xgboost | 33.7% | 25.4% | 40.9% |
| logistic | 27.7% | 25.8% | 46.4% |
| Caen | Quevilly Rouen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1314 | 1416 |
| Surface Elo | 1314 | 1416 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 502 | 859 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Concarneau | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 May | A | Bastia | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 May | H | Red Star | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Apr | A | Lorient | 0 - 4 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | Martigues | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | SC Aubagne Air Bel | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | FC Versailles 78 | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 May | H | St Etienne | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 May | A | Valenciennes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 May | H | Dunkerque | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Quevilly Rouen | 1 - 2 | Caen |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Caen | 3 - 3 | Quevilly Rouen |
| 08 Apr 2023 | Quevilly Rouen | 2 - 1 | Caen |
| 01 Oct 2022 | Caen | 0 - 1 | Quevilly Rouen |
| 07 May 2022 | Caen | 2 - 0 | Quevilly Rouen |
| 21 Dec 2021 | Quevilly Rouen | 2 - 2 | Caen |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.82 | 54.9% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.95 | 51.3% | 24 Sep 06:15 |