| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.4% | 52% | +3.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 54.4% | 45.5% |
| logistic | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Tom Gentzsch | Damir Dzumhur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1688 | 1637 |
| Surface Elo | 1688 | 1637 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Georgii Kravchenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Niels Visker | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Georgii Kravchenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Niels Visker | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Aziz Dougaz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Tom Gentzsch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | Tom Gentzsch |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.81 | 55.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.93 | 51.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |