| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 42.7% | 46% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.2% | 76% | -0.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 52.7% | 63% | -9.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 57% | -2.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 26.5% | 28.7% | 44.8% |
| xgboost | 40.7% | 24.7% | 34.6% |
| logistic | 40.1% | 28.4% | 31.6% |
| Malaga | Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1540 | 1631 |
| Surface Elo | 1540 | 1631 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 1.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | H | Atletico Mancha Real | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Arenas Armilla CD | 1 - 5 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Espanol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | Espanol | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Oct | H | FC Marbelli | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Almeria | 2 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | CD Aurrera de Vitoria | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Union Gilloise | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | RC Deportivo de A Coruna | 3 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | La Coruna | 3 - 2 | W |
| 22 Apr 2018 | Malaga | 2 - 0 | Sociedad |
| 10 Dec 2017 | Sociedad | 0 - 2 | Malaga |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.22 | 45.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.67 | 27.3% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.37 | 29.7% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 18 Oct 06:15 |