| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.1% | 30% | +14.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.4% | 77% | -1.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 54.3% | 39% | +15.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.6% | 67% | +5.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 70.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.4% | 23.2% | 44.4% |
| xgboost | 33.7% | 26.4% | 39.9% |
| logistic | 39.3% | 27.8% | 33.0% |
| Hoffenheim | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1624 | 1750 |
| Surface Elo | 1624 | 1750 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Borussia M´gladbach | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | SC Verl | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Besiktas | 2 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Stuttgart | 2 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Nice | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Nice | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Crystal Palace | 3 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Lens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Lens | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.38 | 29.6% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.11 | 24.3% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.08 | 48.1% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.49 | 67.1% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 22 Oct 06:15 |