| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.2% | 70% | -4.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| logistic | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| Mattia Bellucci | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1773 | 1684 |
| Surface Elo | 1773 | 1684 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Elias Ymer | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Lloyd Harris | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Yanki Erel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Adam Walton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Alexandre Muller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Rio Noguchi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Federico Cina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Alexandre Muller | 0 - 2 | Mattia Bellucci |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 06 Oct 06:15 |