| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 70.2% | 84% | -13.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 19.9% | 80.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 38.6% | 61.3% |
| logistic | 23.3% | 76.7% |
| Moyuka Uchijima | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1370 | 1744 |
| Surface Elo | 1370 | 1744 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 3 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Mary Stoiana | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Ena Shibahara | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Mary Stoiana | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Ena Shibahara | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Zhuoxuan Bai | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Leylah Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Leylah Fernandez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Daria Snigur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Daria Snigur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Qinwen Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Elise Mertens | 2 - 0 | Moyuka Uchijima |
| 03 Oct 2022 | Elise Mertens | 2 - 1 | Moyuka Uchijima |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.19 | 84.0% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.00 | 20.0% | 25 Oct 06:15 |