| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.6% | 45% | +6.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 77.4% | 80% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.5% | 61% | +6.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 67% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 58.5% | 20.7% | 20.8% |
| xgboost | 46.0% | 24.7% | 29.3% |
| logistic | 48.2% | 27.9% | 23.8% |
| Luton | Leicester | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1555 | 1498 |
| Surface Elo | 1555 | 1498 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.90 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Wycombe | 4 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Bromley | 4 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Bromley | 4 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Doncaster | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Doncaster | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Woking | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.55 | 39.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |