| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.3% | 75% | -9.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| logistic | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| Keegan Smith | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1569 | 1455 |
| Surface Elo | 1569 | 1455 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Mitchell Krueger | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Bryce Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Kaylan Bigun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mitchell Krueger | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Blake Ellis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Blake Ellis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Yuta Shimizu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Maximus Jones | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Dominik Palan | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 05 Oct 06:15 |