| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.5% | 72% | -10.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 25.9% | 74.0% |
| logistic | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Marvin Moeller | Luka Mikrut | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1666 | 1779 |
| Surface Elo | 1666 | 1779 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.57 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | H | Dali Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Federico Arnaboldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Stefano Travaglia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Luka Mikrut | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Dali Blanch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Kimmer Coppejans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Federico Iannaccone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 1 | Marvin Moeller |
| 01 Jun 2026 | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 1 | Marvin Moeller |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.38 | 72.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |