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Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-11-06

🎾 tennis_atp_paris_masters · Friday 06 November 2026, 18:00 UTC · scheduled

Taylor Fritz 1.80 18:00 3.00 Carlos Alcaraz

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	72.6%	75%	-2.0%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	23.3%	76.6%
logistic	23.1%	76.9%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Taylor Fritz	Carlos Alcaraz
Elo (pre-match)	2036	2333
Surface Elo	2036	2333
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	3.00
Form trend	-0.90	0.00
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	5 W · 0 D

Taylor Fritz: last 5

06 Nov	A	Carlos Alcaraz	1 - 2	L
05 Nov	A	Arthur Fils	2 - 0	W
05 Nov	A	Arthur Fils	2 - 0	W
04 Nov	A	Alex Molcan	2 - 1	W
04 Nov	A	Alex Molcan	2 - 1	W

Carlos Alcaraz: last 5

06 Nov	H	Taylor Fritz	2 - 1	W
05 Nov	A	Matteo Berrettini	1 - 0	W
04 Nov	A	Alex Michelsen	2 - 0	W
04 Nov	A	Alex Michelsen	2 - 0	W
01 Nov	A	Alex De Minaur	2 - 0	W

Head to head

06 Nov 2026	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 1	Taylor Fritz
10 Nov 2025	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 1	Taylor Fritz
24 Sep 2025	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Taylor Fritz
30 Jun 2025	Carlos Alcaraz	3 - 1	Taylor Fritz
20 Sep 2024	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Taylor Fritz
20 Mar 2023	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Taylor Fritz

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.35	74.1%	06 Nov 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.33	30.0%	06 Nov 06:01
888sport	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.33	75.2%	06 Nov 06:01
888sport	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.30	30.3%	06 Nov 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.29	77.5%	06 Nov 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.05	32.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.37	73.0%	06 Nov 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.60	27.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.39	71.9%	06 Nov 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Taylor Fritz	3.70	27.0%	06 Nov 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.34	74.6%	06 Nov 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.37	29.7%	06 Nov 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.33	75.2%	06 Nov 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.35	29.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.35	74.1%	06 Nov 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.45	29.0%	06 Nov 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.31	76.3%	06 Nov 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.39	29.5%	06 Nov 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.35	74.1%	06 Nov 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.25	30.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.37	73.0%	06 Nov 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.60	27.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.38	72.5%	06 Nov 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Taylor Fritz	3.70	27.0%	06 Nov 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.33	75.2%	06 Nov 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.35	29.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.35	74.1%	06 Nov 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.45	29.0%	06 Nov 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.30	76.9%	06 Nov 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.10	32.3%	06 Nov 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.34	74.6%	06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	3.40	29.4%	06 Nov 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.30	76.9%	06 Nov 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.40	29.4%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.28	78.1%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.15	31.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.35	74.1%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.25	30.8%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.35	74.1%	06 Nov 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.25	30.8%	06 Nov 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.33	75.2%	06 Nov 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.30	30.3%	06 Nov 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.34	74.6%	06 Nov 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.45	29.0%	06 Nov 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.29	77.5%	06 Nov 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Taylor Fritz	3.05	32.8%	06 Nov 06:01

Generated 2026-11-12 21:54 UTC