| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.2% | 48% | -4.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.1% | 75% | -0.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 57.5% | 67% | -9.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 49% | +5.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.6% | 26.9% | 32.5% |
| xgboost | 40.4% | 29.4% | 30.2% |
| logistic | 39.7% | 28.3% | 32.0% |
| Monaco | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1754 | 1769 |
| Surface Elo | 1754 | 1769 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 22 Oct | H | Freiburg | 3 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | PFC CSKA Sofia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 21 Oct | H | Galatasaray | 2 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Brest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Brest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Arsenal | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Le Havre | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 May 2026 | Monaco | 0 - 1 | Lille |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Lille | 1 - 0 | Monaco |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Lille | 2 - 1 | Monaco |
| 18 Oct 2024 | Monaco | 0 - 0 | Lille |
| 24 Apr 2024 | Monaco | 1 - 0 | Lille |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Lille | 2 - 0 | Monaco |
| 14 May 2023 | Monaco | 0 - 0 | Lille |
| 23 Oct 2022 | Lille | 4 - 3 | Monaco |
| 06 May 2022 | Lille | 1 - 2 | Monaco |
| 19 Nov 2021 | Monaco | 2 - 2 | Lille |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 25 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 25 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.91 | 52.4% | 25 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 25 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 25 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.61 | 27.7% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.06 | 48.5% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 25 Oct 06:15 |